DCM Advisors Blog

  • Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern

    Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern
    by Dr. John Mullin, November 12, 2018

    China’s FX Reserves declined by US$ 34 billion in October, bringing this year’s cumulative loss to US$ 87 billion. There are at least two reasons to take this development in stride: The US$ 87 billion decline amounts to a modest 2.8% of initial December 2017 reserves (US$ 3,140 billion).Read More »
  • Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises

    Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 23, 2018

    This year’s emerging market sell-off has raised the long-standing issue of contagion—the tendency for credit problems in a small set of emerging markets to spill over into a broader credit crunch, often with dire implications for economic fundamentals.Read More »
  • Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle

    Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 18, 2018

    Much commentary on recent EM equity declines has focused on the role of U.S. dollar strength. This makes sense for at least a couple of reasons. From a fundamental standpoint, a stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for EM companies and sovereigns.Read More »
  • Italian Markets Dislike the Budget

    Italian Markets Dislike the Budget
    by Vijay Chopra, October 2, 2018

    The Italian equity market fell almost 4%, and 10-year Italian government bonds dropped, with yields increasing by 26 bps to 3.14% on Friday, September 28. These moves were in reaction to the proposed 2019 budget which promised a sharp increase in public spending,Read More »
  • Risk Factors Correlated with Recent EM Equity Declines

    Risk Factors Correlated with Recent EM Equity Declines
    by John Mullin, September 24, 2018

    After reaching an all-time high early this year, the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) index declined 14% in US$ terms between January and August. Although EM equity declines have been broadly spread, there has been a great deal of variation across markets.Read More »