Blog and What’s New

News

November 19, 2018: DCM Advisors, LLC Announces Appointment as Interim and Incoming Investment Advisor for the Centaur Total Return Fund. Please click here for more information.

Blog

  • Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern

    Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern
    by Dr. John Mullin, November 12, 2018

    China’s FX Reserves declined by US$ 34 billion in October, bringing this year’s cumulative loss to US$ 87 billion. There are at least two reasons to take this development in stride: The US$ 87 billion decline amounts to a modest 2.8% of initial December 2017 reserves (US$ 3,140 billion).Read More »
  • Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises

    Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 23, 2018

    This year’s emerging market sell-off has raised the long-standing issue of contagion—the tendency for credit problems in a small set of emerging markets to spill over into a broader credit crunch, often with dire implications for economic fundamentals.Read More »
  • Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle

    Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 18, 2018

    Much commentary on recent EM equity declines has focused on the role of U.S. dollar strength. This makes sense for at least a couple of reasons. From a fundamental standpoint, a stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for EM companies and sovereigns.Read More »
  • Italian Markets Dislike the Budget

    Italian Markets Dislike the Budget
    by Vijay Chopra, October 2, 2018

    The Italian equity market fell almost 4%, and 10-year Italian government bonds dropped, with yields increasing by 26 bps to 3.14% on Friday, September 28. These moves were in reaction to the proposed 2019 budget which promised a sharp increase in public spending,Read More »
  • Risk Factors Correlated with Recent EM Equity Declines

    Risk Factors Correlated with Recent EM Equity Declines
    by John Mullin, September 24, 2018

    After reaching an all-time high early this year, the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) index declined 14% in US$ terms between January and August. Although EM equity declines have been broadly spread, there has been a great deal of variation across markets.Read More »
  • Trying to Predict USD Returns in Markets After USD Strength

    Trying to Predict USD Returns in Markets After USD Strength
    by Dr Leila Heckman, September 11, 2018

    Over the last several months, a strengthening US dollar especially against several emerging market currencies has raised concerns over the equity markets in emerging markets.  This concern arises from several sources, including the ability of emerging markets to pay off dollar-denominated debt,Read More »
  • A Turkey in the Coal Mine

    A Turkey in the Coal Mine
    by Dr Leila Heckman, August 14, 2018

    Having lived through the Asian crisis in 1997 (I was in Korea in Dec. 1997 when the won was depreciating 10% a day) and the Russian default/devaluation in 1998 (I was in Russia in July 1998),Read More »
  • Turkey & Russia: A Tale of Two Currencies

    Turkey & Russia: A Tale of Two Currencies
    by John Mullin, August 13, 2018

    The Turkish lira depreciated substantially against the U.S. dollar last week, extending a losing streak in which the lira has depreciated roughly 40% year-to-date. The lira’s decline reflects multiple investor concerns regarding Turkey, including its heavy reliance on short-term funds from abroad,Read More »
  • Big Depreciations: What Happens Next

    Big Depreciations: What Happens Next
    by John Mullin, May 2018

    Recent emerging market currency declines can be seen in perspective by viewing the past twenty years of the MSCI EM Currency Index (see chart below), which tracks the returns to a portfolio of un-hedged emerging market money market investments.Read More »
  • Emerging Market Pair Trade: Overweight Taiwan, Underweight China

    Emerging Market Pair Trade: Overweight Taiwan, Underweight China
    by John Mullin, May 2018

    Taiwan is more attractive than China in the categories of value, growth, and risk. Both markets trade at roughly 15x trailing earnings. However, Taiwan’s multiple is less expensive than its 16x historical average, whereas China’s multiple is substantially more expensive than its 12x historical average.Read More »

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What’s New

October 9, 2018: Video clip of Dr. Leila Heckman speaking with CBNC Tokyo. Please click here for more information.

June 29, 2018: Video clip of Dr. Leila Heckman speaking with CBNC Tokyo. Please click here for more information. This file loads in YouTube.

June 12, 2018: Audio clip of the International Equities team conference call, discussing their outlook on global equities. Please click here for more information.

May 10, 2018: Audio clip of Gregory Serbe conference call, discussing the impact of interest rates and tax reform on municipal bonds. . Please click here for more information

April 18, 2018: Video clip of Dr. Leila Heckman speaking with CNBC Tokyo on. Please click here for more information.